As many as one in 10 residents in South Korea likely to be foreign by 2042

The number of foreign residents in South Korea is expected to rise steadily in the coming years to account for up to 10.1% of the country’s total working population by 2042, the nation's statistics agency said on Thursday.

According to Statistics Korea projections, the country’s total population is forecast to decline to 49.63 million by 2042 from 51.67 million in 2022.

Korean nationals will fall to 46.77 million, or 94.3% of the total, from about 50 million, or 96.5%, over the same period.

The number of foreigners residing in Korea for at least three months is projected to rise to 2.85 million, or 5.7% of the total, from 1.65 million, or 3.2%.

Under a high-case scenario, the number of foreigners could rise to 3.61 million, or 6.9% of the total, by 2042, the government agency said.

CHANGES MOST PRONOUNCED IN WORKING-AGE GROUP

The agency said demographic changes will be noticeable in the working-age group.

That population, aged 15-64, is forecast to decline to 25.73 million by 2042 from 35.27 million in 2022.

Foreigners in that age group will rise to 2.36 million from 1.47 million, the agency said. As a result, their proportion of Korea’s total working population is forecast to more than double to 8.4% from 4%.

Under a high-case scenario, working-age foreigners will reach 2.94 million to account for 10.1% of the total working population, it said.

When classified by age, 36.9% of Korean nationals will be at least 65 years old by 2042. Koreans in the working age group will account for 55% while 8.1% will be 14 years old or younger.

The number of elderly Koreans aged 65 and above will double to 17.25 million by 2042 from 8.89 million in 2022.

Elderly foreigners will account for 12.1% of the total foreign population by 2042 while 82.6% will be in the working age group and the remaining 5.3% will be 14 years or under.

Statistics Korea said the population with a migratory background – people with foreign citizenship or those with at least one parent with foreign nationality – is projected to rise to 4.04 million from 2.2 million over the period.

The proportion of such people in Korea's total population will rise to 8.1% from 4.3%.

Young people aged 14 or under with migratory backgrounds are forecast to rise to 470,000 from 340,000 by 2042, the agency said.

WORLD’S LOWEST BIRTH RATE

The projections for demographic changes come as South Korea faces a quickly aging population and a chronically low birth rate. 

Trapped in a downward spiral, the country saw its total fertility rate hit a fresh record low of 0.72 in 2023, posting the world’s lowest for a second consecutive year and hurtling toward a demographic cliff.

The fertility rate measures the average number of children a woman is expected to give birth to in her lifetime.

Worse yet, the number of births in Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy, hit a historic low of 230,000 in 2023, down 7.7% from the year prior and halved from a decade ago, according to Statistics Korea.

Write to Kyung-Min Kang at Kkm1026@hankyung.com


In-Soo Nam edited this article.